Climate change will increase the risk of heavy rainfall and storm surges combining to cause extreme flooding around the UK, Germany and other parts of northern Europe.
The team came to this conclusion after running simulations and looking at projected changes in storm surges, precipitation and waves. The results don’t account for defences and local topography, but Bevacqua says the potential hazard from compound flooding should still be factored into risk assessments for coastal communities.
Today, the greatest risk of such floods in Europe is in the south. If climate change continues unchecked at its current trajectory, however, the probability of compound flooding is projected to increase across northern Europe too.Climate adaptation in crops: Jacqueline McGlade at New Scientist Live
The greater risk is clearest for the UK’s west coast, northern France, the east coast of the North Sea and parts of the Black Sea. Hotspots in the UK are expected to include the Bristol Channel, plus the coast in Devon and Cornwall, although Bevacqua says it is hard to pin down precise risk for very local areas, and this should be seen more as a broader trend for northern Europe.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2216760-climate-change-will-boost-risk-of-extreme-flooding-in-northern-europe.